2009 Oscar Predictions

Since I have only seen 3 Oscar nominated films from 2008 (Slumdog Millionaire, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and The Dark Knight), I didn’t feel like I had enough credibility to predict winners for this year’s Oscar Awards. Instead, I decided to look back and see how the Golden Globes did in predicting winners. To note, one major difference between the award shows is that the Golden Globes split up Drama and Musical/Comedy categories which basically gives it two chances at picking the Oscar winner. Let’s look back at the past 10 years for the 3 major awards (Oscar winner in bold):

BEST PICTURE

Season Golden Globe Oscar
Drama Musical/Comedy
1998 Saving Private Ryan Shakespeare in Love Shakespeare in Love
1999 American Beauty Toy Story 2 American Beauty
2000 Gladiator Almost Famous Gladiator
2001 A Beautiful Mind Moulin Rouge A Beautiful Mind
2002 Babel Chicago Chicago
2003 Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King Lost in Translation Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
2004 The Aviator Sideways Crash
2005 Brokeback Mountain Walk the Line Million Dollar Baby
2006 Babel Dreamgirls The Departed
2007 Atonement Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street No Country For Old Men
2008 Slumdog Millionaire Vicky Cristina Barcelona ???
Last-10 4 2
6/10

BEST LEAD ACTOR

Season Golden Globe Oscar
Drama Musical/Comedy
1998 Jim Carrey – The Truman Show Michael Caine – Little Voice Roberto Benigni – Life is Beautiful
1999 Denzel Washington – The Hurricane Jim Carrey – Man on the Moon Kevin Spacey – American Beauty
2000 Tom Hanks – Cast Away George Clooney – O Brother Where Art Thou? Russell Crowe – Gladiator
2001 Russell Crowe – A Beautiful Mind Gene Hackman – The Royal Tenenbaums Denzel Washington – Training Day
2002 Jack Nicholson – About Schmidt Richard Gere – Chicago Adrian Brody – The Pianist
2003 Sean Penn – Mystic River Bill Murray – Lost in Translation Sean Penn – Mystic River
2004 Leonardo DiCaprio – The Aviator Jamie Foxx – Ray Jamie Foxx – Ray
2005 Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote Joaquin Phoenix – Walk the Line Philip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
2006 Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland Sacha Baron Cohen – Borat Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
2007 Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd Daniel Day Lewis – There Will Be Blood
2008 Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler Colin Farrell – In Bruges ???
Last-10 4 1
5/10

BEST LEAD ACTRESS

Season Golden Globe Oscar
Drama Musical/Comedy
1998 Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth Gwenyth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love Gwenyth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love
1999 Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry Janet McTeer – Tumbleweeds Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry
2000 Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich Renee Zellweger – Nurse Betty Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich
2001 Sissy Spacek – In The Bedroom Nicole Kidman – Moulin Rouge Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
2002 Nicole Kidman – The Hours Renee Zellweger – Chicago Nicole Kidman – The Hours
2003 Charlize Theron – Monster Diane Keaton – Something’s Gotta Give Charlize Theron – Monster
2004 Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby Annette Bening – Being Julia Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby
2005 Felicity Huffman – Transamerica Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line
2006 Helen Mirren – The Queen Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada Helen Mirren – The Queen
2007 Julie Christie – Away from Her Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
2008 Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky ???
Last-10 6 3
9/10

What this all means is that the Golden Globes is in a slump predicting the Best Picture after reeling off 8 straight correctly from 1996-2003. On the other hand, the Golden Globes are on a 5 year hot streak of predicting Best Lead Actor after a 5 year futility streak 1998-2002. Finally, based on recent historical results, I would start popping the champagne if I were Kate Winslet, up for Best Lead Actress.

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